Movin' On Up: Presidential Primaries Jockey for Position, Influence
By Mick Kulikowski, News Services
Timing is important in presidential elections.
Winning or doing well in early primaries and caucuses can propel candidates to the top of the list, creating a bandwagon or snowball effect that might carry a candidate through to the November elections, and, ultimately, to the White House.
At the same time, poor early primary performances can force candidates to swallow the bitter pill of withdrawing from the field and pocketing presidential aspirations for four years – or forever.
Because of the momentum-swinging influence of early primaries, states with significant numbers of delegates – Florida and Michigan, for example – have made a lot of noise about moving their presidential primaries earlier – earlier than even the traditional firsts, the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
But in some ways, say Drs. Andy Taylor and Steve Greene in NC State's School of Public and International Affairs in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences, states that try to insert their primaries into an earlier and seemingly more influential position might actually be shooting themselves in the foot.
Take the Democratic Party primary in Michigan, for example. It is slated to be held Jan. 15, 2008, to set the tone for the nation.
Unfortunately for Michiganders, however, the move is in direct violation of Democratic Party rules. As such, many of the Democratic candidates are boycotting the Michigan primary.
"If you hold a primary and there are no candidates, does it exist?" Greene asked with a smile. "The winner gets a story on page A-20 of the newspaper, while it may be a front-page story if you hold it at a later date and all the candidates participate."
The political scientists argue that there's another time that might be even more important than the timing of individual presidential primaries: the so-called exhibition season.
Taylor and Greene say the exhibition season – the time before primaries traditionally begin in February, or in this election season's case, January – is blood sport. It's a time when massive amounts of money are raised and polls are closely scrutinized, and when wannabe candidates are frequently forced to cry uncle, mostly due to fund-raising failures, verbal or organizational missteps, or the inability to attract name recognition.
"You can say that the order of primaries is less important than the exhibition season, especially for Democrats," Taylor says.
That's because Democrats tend to be more serious about heeding the national party's rules, hence the mass boycott of the "early" primary in Michigan.
Republicans, on the other hand, are for the most part less concerned about national party rules, Taylor and Greene say, probably due to the party's traditional interest in states' rights.
So while Democratic candidates and voters ignore the Jan. 15 Michigan primary, Michigan Republicans will enjoy the opportunity to vote and, perhaps, provide a big boost to those who do well - and, maybe, a death knell to those who don't.