News Release

NC State Researchers Say Outlook Indicates Active 2007 Hurricane Season

Media Contact:
Tracey Peake, News Services, 919/515-6142

April 19, 2007

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Last year’s relatively mild hurricane season probably won’t be repeated in 2007, according to researchers at North Carolina State University.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, and graduate student Elinor Keith, the outlook for 2007 is for an active season, with the possibility of 12-14 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Of those named storms, 8-9 may become hurricanes, 4-5 of which have the potential to become major (Category 3 or higher) storms.

The Gulf of Mexico is most likely to see storm activity this year, as Xie’s research indicates a higher-than-average probability of 2-3 hurricanes forming in the Gulf Basin, with 1-2 likely to make landfall.

Closer to home, the southeastern coast of the U.S. may see between 1-3 named storms, with 1-2 hurricanes making landfall.

Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, in order to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

Last year, NC State’s was the only national model to accurately forecast Atlantic hurricane activity, predicting 5-6 hurricanes. Five hurricanes actually formed during the 2006 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.