Poll: Public To Vote Against Its Interests On International Trade

Polling data collected by North Carolina State University researchers in advance of the 2010 election show that potential voters in North Carolina who oppose international free trade agreements are more likely to vote for the candidate who does not reflect their opinion on free trade – and the stronger their opposition to trade agreements, the more likely they are to vote against their interest.

Trade agreements are a contentious issue in North Carolina, and according to a representative survey of North Carolina citizens, people who oppose trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are more likely to vote for incumbent Sen. Richard Burr – despite the fact that Burr voted for NAFTA and is an advocate for free trade. Over 70 percent of likely voters who oppose trade agreements like NAFTA say they plan to vote for Burr. Meanwhile, people who favor these agreements are split 50-50 between Burr and his opponent Elaine Marshall – even though Marshall is a vocal opponent of NAFTA and similar agreements.

“On trade issues, people appear to be voting against their own interests,” says Dr. Michael Cobb, associate professor of political science at NC State and designer of the poll.

The poll also finds that the more people think about international trade agreements, the more they dislike them. “The more they dislike these kinds of agreements, the more likely they are to vote this year, and the more likely they are to support Burr,” Cobb says, “who is an advocate for the very free trade policies they dislike.”

The survey of 663 North Carolina adults  was conducted in October over the Internet by Knowledge Networks on behalf of researchers in NC State’s School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA). The sample was drawn from a panel of respondents Knowledge Networks recruited via random sampling of landline telephone households with listed and unlisted numbers. The company provides Web access to panel recruits who don’t already have it. With a probability basis and coverage of people who otherwise couldn’t access the Internet, the Knowledge Networks online surveys are nationally representative. Results of this survey are weighted, or adjusted, to reflect the adult population by demographic factors such as age, sex, region, race and education. No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause results to vary more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would have been obtained if all adults in North Carolina were surveyed.

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