Researchers at North Carolina State University forecast an above-average hurricane season for 2013.
2013 should see 13 to 17 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea, according to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences (MEAS), and collaborators Dr. Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, Dr. Dorit Hammerling, postdoctoral research associate in statistics and Bin Liu, research assistant professor in MEAS. This number is higher than the (1950-2012) 62-year average of 10.8 named storms.
Of those named storms, 7 to 10 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and three to six may become major hurricanes.
As for the Gulf, this year’s numbers are more in line with historic averages: Xie’s data indicate the likelihood of three to five named storms forming, of which one to two will become hurricanes.
Xie’s methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, in order to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. For more details concerning Xie’s methodology, input data and predictions, visit the research group’s website at: http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.html.